“A lot has to go wrong from here, and would have to go wrong in a real hurry, for us to be looking at recession.” - Ryan O’Connell
On May 19, 2022, at 12pm, Blooming Tree Wealth Management’s Ryan O’Connell hosted the second BTWM Virtual Lunch Webinar of the year.
The webinar covered the following topics:
- Investor sentiment
- Returning to our peak (4818)
- The risk of recession
- Fundamentally valuable assets
- Inflation
- When we’ll have to pay for our mistakes
- Staying positive
The virtual lunch started with taking a look at the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets, which showed that investor sentiment is at its lowest levels since 2009, the year following the start of “The Great Recession.”
When investor sentiment is low, investors are hesitant to re-enter the market. They are waiting for something positive to happen, but if you consistently wait for positivity to show itself in the market, you will miss the greatest opportunities the market presents.
When a Negative Turns Into Opportunity
The best time to be a buyer in the past 15 years was in 2009, when investors were even more pessimistic about the market’s future than they are today. The low in investor sentiment was followed by a massive rally in the market. Historically, the best time to invest is often when people are feeling the most uncertain about investing. “While this is not a prediction, it is something to consider,” Ryan says. “When everyone is high on the market, the opposite could be true,” Ryan continues. “I am not saying we will turn around quickly from this dip, but historically, this type of turn has happened.”
Will We Get Back to 4818?
As the S&P 500 dips under 3900, it’s important to look at what has happened historically after regressing from a new high. Going back to the 1920’s, there has never been a time where we haven’t had a trough and then not risen to a new high. Do you think we’ll ever get back to 4818? I believe we will.
Whether it’s this year or in three years, the opportunity to ride the market back up to 4818 is an attractive one. That opportunity appears to be even more attractive when we look at increasing dividends.
Positivity to Take with You
Rates are rising, and there have been mistakes made that will impact our financial future, but according to Ryan, “This is not a doomsday scenario.” Ryan continues, saying, “We will likely have to deal with mistakes we made with monetary policy -- that is probably coming, but it isn’t here now.”
Before closing out the webinar, Ryan shared the lyrics from “Ac-Cent-Tchu-Ate The Positive,” which he was reminded of during one of his children’s school concerts.
“You've got to ac-cent-tchu-ate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In Between
You've got to spread joy up to the maximum
Bring gloom down to the minimum
Have faith or pandemonium
Liable to walk upon the scene”
It’s not easy to stay positive when everything around you is negative, so the next time you need reassurance, call Ryan and the BTWM team! We can help you accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, and latch on to the affirmative.
Thank you to everyone who attended the Q2 BTWM Virtual Lunch Webinar with Ryan O’Connell. Stay tuned for information on the BTWM Q3 Virtual Lunch Webinar, which will tentatively take place in Mid-July.